The Leaders' Debate in English

First, I'd like to thank Damian Penny for putting together his notes on the debate on a practically minute-by-minute basis. I didn't follow it that closely, but his key points have been very useful in pulling together my own "analysis" which follows.

To start with, I missed a good fifteen minutes at the beginning of the debate, so I didn't hear the opening statements of any of the participants. As I got home, Jack Layton was hammering Stephen Harper's statement about allowing free votes in Parliament for abortion and gay marriage as being part of Harper's "hidden agenda" to take away civil rights granted by the Supreme Court (he'd return to this theme later over the "notwithstanding" clause). A problem for Duceppe, Martin, and especially Harper was trying to get a word in edgewise against the torrent of words coming from Layton. Damian mentions that Layton has a "cult-like smile", and I have to agree . . . it was kinda creepy after more than a couple of minutes.

Aside from the fact that free votes in Parliament are much more "democratic" than the traditional votes along party lines (enforced by the party whips), it's interesting that Layton feels that he has to keep pushing the "hidden agenda" meme. From anyone else, it'd be pure tinfoil hat conspiracy stuff, but from him, it sounds natural. Martin may be as concerned about these free votes Harper is proposing, as his caucus is far from unified over both contentious issues.

Martin looked rattled by some of the questions, and, as Damian notes, appears on camera more as the aggressive opposition leader than as the dignified and confident prime minister (Harper did that quite well). Duceppe actually came across much better in English than I'd expected . . . he's not as polished as Layton, but he's got a much more authentic air of sincerity than Jack does. He got off the best line in the whole debate on US-Canadian relations, though: "being their best friend doesn't mean kneeling down in front of them." Jack Layton smarms like nobody else on the podium . . . he really needs to stop that crazy man smile of his: I think it's going to turn off more people than his policies do!

I'm still not certain that Stephen Harper managed to get many of his points across, but many blog commentators feel that he clearly won the home audience's confidence.

Harper and Martin squared off on national defence, with Martin again trying to push the "aircraft carriers" as being for the wrong decade, while Harper tried to point out that the ships he's in favour of are not what Martin is claiming. I don't think that most of the audience could figure out the difference, unless they were better informed on military matters than I think they are. Martin probably won that exchange on that basis. But, IMO, Harper was correct. Martin failed to score much over the Iraq War, as Harper skewered him over the hypocrisy of actually having Canadian soldiers involved, but refusing to formally support the US or join the alliance forces.

Once the debate shifted to health care, Layton and Martin clearly felt that they could wipe the floor with Harper, but they spent less time doing that than attacking one another and their respective policies, so that Harper actually had to fight to get his points into the discussion. From the point of view of most Canadians, this is the key difference between the Tories and the rest: universality of healthcare and the exclusion of the private sector. Just mentioning the idea gives many Canadians great distress . . . and Layton nearly scored a big hit on Martin by pointing out how much of the healthcare system is being moved into the private sector, regardless of the pro-public rhetoric of the Liberals. Martin managed to shift the debate around so that Layton's punch went astray (one of the few moments when Martin appeared to be in charge of the agenda).

From health care, the next big issue was public daycare, which is another Tory weak spot from the left's viewpoint. Everyone went out of their way to praise the Quebec system, but Duceppe managed to lose some ground by whining on about "losing" money from the federal government because they had a more "efficient" system. As described in the debate, the feds were quite correct, but most politicians love to lambaste their opponents and this was too good an opportunity for Duceppe to show Quebec voters that he's their champion.

The closing remarks were fascinating, as they appeared to be from four different debates. Harper talked about what "his government" will do after the election. Layton did his level best to persuade wavering NDP voters not to switch to the Liberals. Duceppe tore into Martin over the sponsorship scandal, and Martin looked like he'd just gone a few rounds with Muhammed Ali, stammering and sweating and looking all-but-done-in.

Several people have commented that Harper demonstrated the perfect imitation of a Canadian: quiet, polite, reserved until you get to know him, dignified. If this is the common perception of the debates, then Harper has won overwhelmingly, despite the snarkiness displayed by the CBC and Toronto Star talking heads at the end of the debate (who all declared Martin the winner). To quote "Billy" commenting on Andrew Coyne's website: "In parts, he looked and acted like a guy that knew he was just about to get whacked in those godfather-mafia type movies."