This blog is a random collection of information, partly in support of my quotations web site. Other topics include wine, military news, economics, history, libertarianism, and other random things which happen to strike my fancy. Backup site is at http://quotulatiousness.blogspot.com/ (if there are no posts showing, hit the backup blog for explanation). Comments have been turned off, as the spam was getting too much to handle. Comments can be emailed to me for posting.

July 13, 2004

Global Warming's Hockey Stick of Doom

Reason Hit and Run weblog points to a new study which calls into question the most effective public relations tool used by the global warming lobby, the hockey stick:

The NCPA report cites findings from five independent research groups that have uncovered serious problems with Mann and Jones' methodology and calculations, which call into question any of its conclusions. For example:

  • Several researchers found Mann and Jones made errors in the collection and use of varying data from multiple sources, used obsolete data, made incorrect calculations, associated data sets with incorrect geographical locations, inappropriately eliminated specific proxy records that they felt were inaccurate and employed statistical methods that removed long time period trends, such as the widely recognized Medieval Warm Period (about A.D. 800 to 1400) and the Little Ice Age (A.D. 1600 to 1850).
  • Mann published a retraction in the June 2004 issue of Geophysical Research, in which he admits underestimating the temperature variations indicated by the proxy data by more than one-third since 1400, which accounts for why he missed the Little Ice Age. Strangely, Mann still argues this considerable error doesn't impact his conclusions.
  • Further, Legates found the "blade" (or sudden rise in temperature) of Mann's hockey stick could not be reproduced using common statistical techniques, or even employing the same techniques as Mann and Jones.

As the Instapundit would say, read the whole thing.

I've never been all that convinced of the accuracy of the scientific evidence presented in favour of the Global Warming theory, especially as it seemed to play rather too clearly into the hands of the anti-growth, anti-capitalist, pro-world government folks. A world-wide ecological disaster, clearly caused by human action, would allow a lot of authoritarian changes which would radically reduce individual freedom and increase the degree of social control exercised by governments over the actions and movement of their citizenry.

I try to avoid making statements which seem to fall into the conspiracy theorist end of the body politic, but some ideas are dangerous to the public (each and severally) . . . and this is one of the worst potential offenders.

Posted by Nicholas at July 13, 2004 02:41 PM
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