Predictions are for geeks

A post up at Let it bleed talks about the difficulty of predicting seat totals from the percentages reported in the polls. The predictions at this stage of the last election were pretty far off:

Continuing on in my new-found role of playing the grump, I was mentioning to a friend the other day that people seem to have forgotten what actually happened in the 2004 election. In hindsight (note the emphasis) the results have acquired a cast of inevitability — the media coverage was too negative! Harper stopped campaigning with a week to go! the Liberal attack ads were brilliant! the polls indicated the Tories would lose!

Only in the last couple of days have the Tories come close to majority territory. On the latest poll data, using my up-to-the-second, hi-tech, Excel spreadsheet (anyone who knows my Excel skilz will be laughing at this point), I confidently predict 76 Crooks, 138 Fascists, 48 Commies, and 46 Traitors. Resulting in a minority Fascist government, ready to negotiate with the Commies or the Traitors for support.

My numbers are at least as believable as any others, but I don't believe 'em myself, partly because they don't account for the "wasted" votes in ridings where the winner garners a huge plurality (Alberta and Quebec, mostly) and partly because I still don't really trust the polling numbers to be accurate.